Tampa's 2025 Housing Shift: Why Buyers Now Have the Upper Hand

By Andrew Duncan

Andrew Duncan is the Founder, CEO and Co-Owner of Tampa’s Best Real Estate Agent Team, The Duncan Duo, the Host of The Duncan Duo Real Estate Show Sundays at 10am on 970AM WFLA. As the team’s Founder, CEO & Co-Owner, Andrew’s focus is on the growth of the company, marketing and promotion initiatives as well as motivating and coaching the team’s agents and leadership.

March 2025 data reveals surprising shifts every buyer and seller needs to understand. Whether you plan to move this year or simply track the market, these trends will directly impact your decisions and your bottom line.

Prices are no longer climbing. In March 2025, the average sale price was $469,000, down from $480,000 in March 2024. For almost two years, prices held steady, but we’re now seeing signs of a decline. To put it in perspective, March 2023 was $451,000, then it jumped, and now it’s starting to ease back. Since the market peak in May 2022, prices have stayed flat, but that’s beginning to change.

More homes are hitting the market. There are over 20,000 homes for sale right now. That’s 4.3 months of inventory, the highest we’ve seen in over a decade. For sellers, this means more competition. Homes are taking longer to sell and often need price reductions to attract buyers.

“The market will rebound, but right now, it’s adjusting, making this a smart time for buyers to act and sellers to rethink their strategy.”

Population growth is slowing down. Tampa Bay saw a wave of new residents during the pandemic, but many are now leaving. The recent hurricane season pushed some families to reconsider living here, especially if it was their first real storm. We’re seeing a shift from net growth to net loss in population, which impacts housing demand.

What this means for buyers and sellers. If you’re a seller, pricing your home correctly is more important than ever. You can’t rely on last year’s values; buyers have more options and shop carefully. If you’re a buyer, this is a rare window of opportunity. You have negotiating power, more homes to choose from, and prices are starting to soften.

Tampa’s long-term outlook is still strong. Florida still offers no state income tax, and new proposals could even remove property taxes. The market will rebound, but right now, it’s adjusting, making this a smart time for buyers to act and sellers to rethink their strategy.

The Tampa market still offers sunshine, just with new rules. For a free, hyperlocal analysis of what your home is worth or where the best deals are hiding, call us at 813-359-8990 or email info@theduncanduo.com. Let’s turn these market shifts to your advantage—before the next wave of changes arrives